瑞银-美股-能源行业-澳大利亚能源业：需求前景拉低油价预期--页

www.ubs.com/investmentresearch This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Australia Ltd. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 14. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.  Global Research 10 September 2019 Australian Energy Demand outlook drags down oil price forecasts Cutting oil price forecasts through to 2021; LT unchanged at $70/bbl We reduce our forecast oil price through 2H19-2021 by $2-7/bbl (link) but retain our long-term oil price at US$70/bbl to be sustained through 2022-2024. Our revised outlook on oil prices through 2019-21 reflects revised global demand outlook in line with UBS' updated economic forecasts. Our base case for our long-term oil price remains unchanged, the price reflects our view that the long-term marginal price to incentivise new supply required to balance the market is within ~US$60-80/bbl. We expect oil prices of US$70/bbl (nominal) to be sustained through 2022-2024. Valuations down 1-3% as we lower our oil price forecasts through to 2021 The revision in short term oil prices reduces the NAV of our companies by 1-3%. Companies with more value attributed to growth such as OSH (which has 36% of its NAV attributed to PNG expansion and Alaska) are least exposed to downward revisions in near-term oil price forecasts. With the implied oil price of Aus. E&Ps broadly trading in line with spot we believe the subdued outlook for oil over the next 12 months is largely reflected in the current price of Aus. E&Ps. Within Aus. energy and utilities sectors under coverage our most preferred names are ORG and OSH. For ORG we expect increasing APLNG distributions, a well-executed cost out program within energy markets combined with positive drilling results in Beetaloo to drive the share price higher. Our current valuation for OSH assumes A$1.32/sh for PNG expansion (75% risked). Sector EPS downgrades through 2019-21E on revised oil prices Our lower oil price forecast through 2019-21 reflects a more subdued outlook on global oil demand, down ~130kbbl/d from 2020 onwards (from our prior forecasts). The key drag to global oil demand is the impact of the US-China trade dispute as the two countries together account for ~33% of global oil demand and about half of our forecast 2020 growth. We revise down our forecast EPS for the sector by 5-23% through 2019-21 with WPL having the most material revision in 2020 (of -23%). This is followed by OSH with 2020 EPS down 20% and STO the least exposed of the Aus. E&P, with 2020 EPS down 14% as the company has materially reduced its oil exposure following the ac...