Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook BoardApproved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board , Rice Outlook Nathan W. Childs, coordinator U.S. Rice Export Forecasts Lowered for Both 2019/20 and 2020/21 There were several changes this month to both the 2019/20 and 2020/21 U.S. rice balance sheets. For 2019/20, imports were raised, domestic use increased, and exports were lowered, resulting in a 1.5-million-hundredweight (cwt) increase in the ending stocks forecast. For 2020/21, carryin, imports, and domestic use were revised up, while exports were lowered slightly. On balance, these revisions resulted in a 2.5-million-cwt increase in the 2020/21 ending stocks forecast. The 2020/21 U.S. season-average farm prices were unchanged from a month earlier. In the global market, record production is projected for 2020/21 despite a reduction this month in Vietnam’s crop forecast. The 2021 global rice trade forecast was lowered fractionally but is still 6 percent above a year earlier. Global ending rice stocks were revised higher and remain record high. Thailand’s trading prices have declined from early May, while U.S. prices are unchanged and Vietnam’s prices are up slightly. 0102030405060700204060801001985/851990/911995/962000/012005/062010/112015/16 2020/21fEnding StocksStocks-to-UseFigure 1U.S. rice stocks projected to increase 35 percent in 2020/21Million cwt (rough basis)PercentCwt = Hundredweight. 2019/20 and 2020/21f = forecasts. Sources: 1985/86-2017/18, Rice Yearbook Data Set, USDA, Economic Research Service; 2018/19-2020/21, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA,World Agricultural Outlook Board. August-July Market YearNext release is July 14, 2020 RCS-20F June 15, 2020 In this report: - Domestic Outlook - International Outlook Rice Outlook monthly tables, in excel format, can be found on the Rice Outlook report page on USDA’s Economic Research Service website. Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report 2 RCS-20F, June 15, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Domestic Outlook U.S. 2020/21 Total Rice Supply Forecast Raised 2.5 Million Cwt There were two supply-side revisions this month to the 2020/21 U.S. all-rice balance sheet. First, the 2020/21 carryin was increased 1.5 million cwt to 32.0 million cwt, still down almost 29 percent from a year earlier. The increase was due to an upward revision—all for long-grain—in the 2019/20 import forecast. By class, the long-grain 2020/21 carryin was raised 1.5 million cwt to 16.2 million cwt, down 50 percent from a year earlier and second-smallest since 2004/05. In contrast, the combined medium- and short-grain 2020/21 carryin remains forecast at 13.7 million cwt, up 35 percent from a year earlier. The 2020/21 all-rice import forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 33.6 million cwt, up just 0.1 million cwt from the 2019/20 revised import forecast. The 2020/21 impor...
