Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Oil Crops Outlook Mark Ash Dana Golden Brighter U.S. Export Outlook May Trim 2020/21 Stocks Surplus U.S. soybean production for 2020/21 is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year’s crop. The increase is largely based on farmers following through on intentions to plant 83.5 million acres of soybeans, although the projected trend yield of 49.8 bushels per acre is also above last year’s level. U.S. soybean exports in 2020/21 may see a recovery to 2.05 billion bushels compared with a revised 2019/20 forecast of 1.675 billion. Coupled with a minimal increase for the domestic crush, season-ending stocks for 2020/21 may decline to 405 million bushels from 580 million in 2019/20. 3035404550550204060801002010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21Bushels/acreMillion acresSources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production and World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.Figure 1Bigger U.S. soybean crop is seen in 2020/21 on recoveries for sown acreage and yield Planted acreageYield (right axis)Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Next release is June 15, 2020 OCS-20e | May 14, 2020 2 Oil Crops Outlook, OCS-20e, May 14, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Domestic Outlook Soybean Supplies and Exports May Both Rebound in 2020/21 U.S. soybean production for 2020/21 is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year’s crop. The increase is largely based on farmers following through on their intentions to plant 83.5 million acres of soybeans for an expected harvested area of 82.8 million acres. It would be a sharp increase from the 76.1 million acres sown in 2019/20. Soybean planting this spring is advancing well in some Midwestern areas, with 38 percent of intended U.S. acreage sown by May 10. In other northern regions, however, cold weather has either stalled the start of planting or could require some re-planting. The projected 2020/21 crop is also based on a projected trend yield of 49.8 bushels per acre and would be above the 2019/20 yield of 47.4 bushels. The bigger crop and large carryover stocks would boost total supplies in 2020/21 by 5 percent to 4.7 billion bushels. U.S. soybean exports in 2020/21 may see a recovery to 2.05 billion bushels compared with a revised 2019/20 forecast of 1.675 billion. Considerable gains are likely for soybean shipments to 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20Million bushelsSource: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.Figure 2Despite bigger U.S. soybean crop, 2020/21 ending stocks may ease with an export recovery Ending stocksExportsDomestic useProductionqNqMsQzRwOaQbP8OmOpPmOqQlOoOmRlOrQtOaQmNqOwMmNx...
