Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Meat Production Increases Expected in 2021 William Hahn 2021 production for beef, pork, broilers, and turkeys is expected to be higher than 2019 and 2020 levels. See the figure below. The largest year-over-year percent changes are in beef production. The 2020 beef production forecast is 1.8 percent below production in 2019. In 2021 production is expected to be 3.4 percent higher than in 2020. The 2020 pork production forecast is 0.5 percent below production in 2019. Next year, pork production is expected to be 1.7 percent higher than forecast production in 2020. Broiler production in 2020 is forecast 0.3 percent below production last year. For 2021 broilers, production is expected to be 2.1 percent higher than the 2020 forecast. Turkey production is expected to be 0.8 percent less in 2020 than a year earlier, and in 2021, 1.3 percent above forecast production for 2020. 27,15527,63843,9055,81826,67427,76644,0375,76927,57528,23544,9755,84505,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000BeefPorkBroilerTurkeyMillions of pounds carcass weight202120202019Actual 2019 and forecast 2020 and 2021: U.S. meat production for the four major speciesSource: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board.Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Next release is July 16, 2020 LDP-M-312 | June 17, 2020 2 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, LDP-M-312, June 17, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service Beef/Cattle: The 2020 second-quarter beef production forecast was raised by 370 million pounds from May’s forecast to 6.0 billion pounds due to a quicker-than-expected pace of slaughter. The third- and fourth-quarter beef production forecasts were also raised from last month at 6.9 and 6.8 billion pounds, respectively. This increase in slaughter raises the forecast of 2020 beef production to 26.7 billion pounds. Cattle prices are forecast higher than last month on increased packer demand as slaughter capacity recovers. April’s beef imports were fractionally lower than last year at 270.7 million pounds. However, the second- and third-quarter forecasts were revised up to 785 and 730 million pounds, respectively, on stronger expected demand of beef for processing. U.S. beef exports in April were down 3.4 percent from a year earlier. The second-quarter beef export forecast remains unchanged at 675 million pounds, while the third-quarter beef forecast was revised up to 750 million pounds, reflecting an increase in available exportable supplies. Dairy: Wholesale prices for butter and cheese have been extremely volatile in recent weeks, plunging to very low levels in April and early May before rising to relatively high levels more recently. Supply and demand factors account for the volatility in prices. After the downturn in prices and excess milk supply in April and early M...
